Create a list of relevant keywords, gather the monthly search volume estimates for those terms and multiply them by an “organic click through rate” that simulates the number of clicks a site in a particular ranking position would receive. This allows you to predict the potential organic traffic to a particular page.

To make your prediction even more accurate, you can refine your keyword list for relevance by evaluating the competition for each keyword. This will help you identify which keywords are worth targeting and how much effort should be put in to rank for each one.

Additionally, you can use data from your own website analytics to determine the average click through rate of organic search traffic to your site and adjust your prediction accordingly. This will give you a better understanding of how much organic traffic you can expect to receive from each ranking position.

Create an Organic Traffic Forecast

You can either create a prediction for that organic traffic based on a singular ranking position, or average the organic CTR for the Top 3 rankings vs positions 4-10. This gives you a useful SEO forecast comparison of being just “on the first page” vs being “at the top” of the rankings. You can refine your prediction further by considering the impact of seasonality and trends on search volume.

Remember to factor seasonality into your keyword research. 

When you see search volume in SEO tools like SEMrush, Ahrefs, DataForSEO remember that some terms have seasonal spikes or valleys in popularity. 
Santa ain't as popular in summer!
Summertime Santa isn’t a “thing”

For example, if you’re targeting a keyword related to a holiday, the search volume for that keyword is likely to increase in the weeks leading up to the event. You can leverage this insight by adjusting your organic CTR accordingly.

Additionally, consider the impact of external factors such as changes in Google’s algorithm or increased competition from other websites targeting the same keyword. These types of variables can have a major impact on your organic traffic prediction and should be taken into account when creating your forecast.

Make Your Organic Traffic Prediction More Realistic

You can add a level of “reality” to your prediction, by taking a reasonable % of those keywords overall, because it is unlikely your site will rank for EVERY keyword you have in your list. You can also consider the impact of “long tail” keywords, which are longer and more specific versions of a keyword that users are more likely to search.

A good example of this is if you’re targeting a keyword like “shoes”, you may want to include variations such as “mens black dress shoes” or “running shoes for women” in your list. These long tail keywords are typically less competitive and can give you an edge in terms of getting organic traffic.

Categories: SEObits

Jeremy Rivera

Jeremy Rivera started in SEO in 2007, working at Advanced Access a hosting company for Realtors. He came up from the support department, where people kept asking "How do I rank in Google" and found in the process of answering that question an entire career. He became SEO product manager of, went "in-house" at Raven Tools in Nashville in 2013. He then worked at several agencies like Caddis, 2 The Top Design as an SEO manager and then launched a 5 year freelance SEO career. During that time he consulted for large enterprise sites like Smile Direct Club, Dr. Axe, HCA, Logan's Roadhouse and Captain D's while also helping literally hundreds of small business owners get found in search results. He has authored blog posts at Authority Labs, Raven Tools, Wix, Search Engine Land. He has been a speaker at many SEO conferences like Craft Content and been interviewed in numerous SEO focused podcasts.